European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Two Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Rubicksignature
QBFY · 21 game
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
Two Move
Ringmaster
Htrd · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
WoE · 2 games
Death Prophet
Ainkrad · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 2 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 2 games
Rubick
queezy · 2 games
Silencer
Htrd · 2 games
Snapfire
queezy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 297 bans
Phoenix
478 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
431 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 322 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 842 bans
Puck
346 picks · 846 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 82%
Hero pool strength54% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Team Lynx 57%Two Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Two Move in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King7jesu
PuckAinkrad
Razormellojul
PangolierBb3px
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
LifestealerWoE
WindrangerQBFY
EnchantressHtrd
Phoenixkreker
Lionqueezy
Game 2prediction missed38:39
Team Lynx 53%Two Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Two Move in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Faceless VoidWoE
Sven7jesu
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Pangoliermellojul
DawnbreakerBb3px
RubickQBFY
RingmasterHtrd
Techieskreker
Hoodwinkqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 60%
Series resultTwo Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2