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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 13 games
62%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Dendi · 10 games
70%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 8 games
75%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 6 games
17%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
pJonn · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
275 picks · 431 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 111 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
231 picks · 326 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 455 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
217 picks · 324 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 521 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
198 picks · 168 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
192 picks · 254 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength63% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:33
B8 Esports 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 1:01:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreShad
50% · 113 games54% · 141 game
Spirit BreakerpJonn
Spirit Breaker
Magnus
MagnusDendi
52% · 172 games40% · 67 games
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Axe
AxeStoneBank
48% · 44 games54% · 94 games
Linaerase
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
48% · 202 games49% · 109 games
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
44% · 51 game60% · 171 game
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed43:48
B8 Esports 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:17:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusDendi
54% · 62 games44% · 28 games
Razorerase
Razor
Magnus
MagnusStoneBank
58% · 128 games42% · 49 games
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
46% · 50 games52% · 125 games
Nature's Prophetrue
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMary_y
54% · 135 games54% · 92 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
46% · 53 games44% · 134 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct27:11
B8 Esports 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingStoneBank
60% · 48 games48% · 119 games
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
46% · 83 games39% · 51 game
Zeuserase
Zeus
Pangolier
PangolierDendi
54% · 298 games47% · 127 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
51% · 112 games53% · 235 games
Nature's Prophetaik
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
49% · 206 games53% · 215 games
Snapfirerue
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 56%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3