Global Esports Games 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Саудовская Аравияloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Казахстанwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Саудовская Аравия
No games played over 6 months.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
275 picks · 429 bans
Dark Willow
232 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
231 picks · 324 bans
Treant Protector
221 picks · 455 bans
Phoenix
218 picks · 324 bans
Kunkka
203 picks · 521 bans
Tusk
199 picks · 168 bans
Centaur Warrunner
192 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Саудовская Аравия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:27
Саудовская Аравия 35%Казахстан 65%
The model gave 65% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 39:26.
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Саудовская Аравия 35%Казахстан 65%
The model gave 65% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 24:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 65%
Series resultКазахстан 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2