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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 9 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencer
天命 · 8 games
50%

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 11 games
100%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
91%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 9 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
275 picks · 424 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
229 picks · 324 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 455 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
217 picks · 321 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
200 picks · 522 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
198 picks · 168 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 408 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
Azure Ray 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 52:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlou
50% · 117 games50% · 91 game
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Doom
DoomXxs
53% · 193 games53% · 378 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXm
53% · 194 games47% · 125 games
Dragon KnightATF
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
56% · 84 games53% · 58 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
45% · 161 game42% · 97 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct12:32
Azure Ray 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalou
45% · 74 games47% · 117 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierXm
55% · 208 games48% · 129 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
52% · 114 games45% · 136 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressXinQ
52% · 150 games54% · 75 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Clockwerk
Clockwerk天命
53% · 129 games49% · 218 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed22:26
Azure Ray 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidlou
55% · 32 games46% · 99 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Dazzle
DazzleXm
60% · 30 games57% · 20 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
56% · 66 games46% · 108 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
50% · 47 games51% · 96 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Tusk
Tusk天命
48% · 212 games41% · 64 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 56%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3