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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 14 games
79%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 11 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
89%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 7 games
100%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 17 games
35%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Aui_2000 · 14 games
29%
Techies
Techies
Sneyking · 12 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrider
Sneyking · 11 games
36%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Sneyking · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 422 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
229 picks · 322 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 451 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
216 picks · 318 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
197 picks · 520 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
196 picks · 166 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 408 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 48%
Hero pool strength67% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Team Falcons 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
55% · 61 game52% · 30 games
JuggernautTimado
Juggernaut
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
48% · 78 games49% · 27 games
Necrophosbryle-
Necrophos
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
52% · 202 games46% · 125 games
Kunkkakasane
Kunkka
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
47% · 63 games58% · 201 game
Nature's ProphetImmersion
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
46% · 115 games48% · 136 games
Centaur WarrunnerWhitemon
Centaur Warrunner
Game 2prediction correct39:25
Team Falcons 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightATF
51% · 70 games36% · 7 games
HuskarTimado
Huskar
Luna
LunaSkiter
50% · 54 games53% · 18 games
Necrophosbryle-
Necrophos
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
62% · 38 games50% · 22 games
Slardarkasane
Slardar
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
52% · 58 games47% · 89 games
PhoenixImmersion
Phoenix
Lich
LichSneyking
55% · 46 games44% · 130 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2