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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 17 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
y` · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 13 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 13 games
85%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
niu · 12 games
67%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
zai · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 422 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
229 picks · 322 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 451 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
216 picks · 318 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
197 picks · 520 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
196 picks · 166 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 408 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
LGD Gaming 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightshiro
56% · 59 games47% · 60 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark Seerniu
50% · 128 games53% · 83 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEmo
49% · 117 games50% · 194 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
47% · 176 games50% · 141 game
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
48% · 58 games49% · 60 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed57:43
LGD Gaming 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:00:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
54% · 146 games55% · 52 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
51% · 123 games51% · 316 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerniu
43% · 81 game50% · 115 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Chen
Cheny`
55% · 56 games48% · 16 games
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskPyw
45% · 231 game49% · 138 games
Crystal MaidenBoxi
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2