ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WSWawitas Sagazesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Primal Beastsignature
Fbz · 15 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Batridersignature
yamich · 11 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 11 games
Wawitas Sagazes
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Necrophosoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Enchantress
Panda · 4 games
Luna
Lumière · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
271 picks · 418 bans
Dark Willow
230 picks · 109 bans
Muerta
228 picks · 322 bans
Treant Protector
219 picks · 449 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 315 bans
Kunkka
197 picks · 516 bans
Tusk
194 picks · 164 bans
Nature's Prophet
189 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Wawitas Sagazes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:22
Team Secret 61%Wawitas Sagazes 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
WeaverOscar
Lone DruidBOOM
Templar AssassinLumière
InvokerMidOne
TimbersawDarkMago
Nature's ProphetPuppey
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Centaur Warrunneryamich
Game 2prediction correct39:37
Team Secret 62%Wawitas Sagazes 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 55:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
PangolierDarkMago
BrewmasterBOOM
MorphlingLumière
HuskarMidOne
Lone DruidOscar
Tuskyamich
Treant ProtectorPanda
JakiroPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 71%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2