ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Chalice · 7 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 28 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 22 games
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
dyrachyo · 21 game
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 21 game
Techiessignature
tOfu · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
271 picks · 418 bans
Dark Willow
230 picks · 109 bans
Muerta
228 picks · 322 bans
Treant Protector
219 picks · 449 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 315 bans
Kunkka
197 picks · 516 bans
Tusk
194 picks · 164 bans
Nature's Prophet
189 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:18
Azure Ray 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerlou
Lone DruidAce
ViperXm
Morphlingdyrachyo
MagnusXxs
Queen of PainQuinn
MuertaXinQ
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Treant Protector天命
RubicktOfu
Game 2prediction missed22:8
Azure Ray 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 23:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerlou
Naga Sirendyrachyo
NecrophosXm
WindrangerQuinn
MarsXxs
Wraith KingAce
EnchantressXinQ
ChenSeleri
Silencer天命
PhoenixtOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2