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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Montewin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlas Burdenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
Crystallize · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
EcNart · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%

Atlas Burden

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 4 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Hellscream · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Panto · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Hellscream · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 416 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
232 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
229 picks · 322 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
220 picks · 455 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 316 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
198 picks · 513 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
195 picks · 163 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 406 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:8
Monte 36%Atlas Burden 64%
The model gave 64% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Monte in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCrystallize
50% · 57 games52% · 66 games
PuckSSS
Puck
Razor
RazorMoonlight
55% · 50 games47% · 65 games
Centaur Warrunnerchempik
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
51% · 104 games53% · 119 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcNart
48% · 216 games43% · 177 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct13:38
Monte 36%Atlas Burden 64%
The model gave 64% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusMoonlight
46% · 50 games42% · 14 games
Dazzlechempik
Dazzle
Lone Druid
Lone DruidCrystallize
49% · 31 game54% · 61 game
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Axe
AxeInfernal
61% · 33 games50% · 42 games
Centaur WarrunnerHellscream
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
50% · 70 games45% · 67 games
GrimstrokePanto
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed31:18
Monte 37%Atlas Burden 63%
The model gave 63% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Monte in 50:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCrystallize
50% · 63 games43% · 110 games
PuckSSS
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
59% · 142 games55% · 98 games
Nature's ProphetHellscream
Nature's Prophet
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
71% · 15 games40% · 47 games
Centaur Warrunnerchempik
Centaur Warrunner
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
49% · 65 games43% · 30 games
IoPanto
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 76%
Series resultMonte 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3