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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
zai · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 11 games
82%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Aui_2000 · 13 games
31%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Sneyking · 12 games
33%
Techies
Techies
Sneyking · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrider
Sneyking · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 411 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
226 picks · 322 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 453 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
214 picks · 312 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
197 picks · 510 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
194 picks · 162 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 404 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Team Liquid 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
45% · 79 games51% · 72 games
Wraith Kingkasane
Wraith King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSabeRLight-
50% · 109 games54% · 128 games
Linabryle-
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
44% · 133 games52% · 118 games
SpectreTimado
Spectre
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
46% · 120 games49% · 110 games
WeaverImmersion
Weaver
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
52% · 172 games56% · 185 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Team Liquid 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
57% · 130 games50% · 177 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
52% · 90 games60% · 24 games
Slardarbryle-
Slardar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
49% · 196 games43% · 96 games
Windrangerkasane
Windranger
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
45% · 96 games47% · 209 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
53% · 114 games51% · 120 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2