Global Esports Games 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Южно-Африканская Республикаloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Казахстанwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Южно-Африканская Республика
No games played over 6 months.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 407 bans
Dark Willow
231 picks · 110 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 321 bans
Treant Protector
219 picks · 452 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 310 bans
Kunkka
197 picks · 509 bans
Tusk
194 picks · 162 bans
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Южно-Африканская Республика
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:61
Южно-Африканская Республика 28%Казахстан 72%
The model gave 72% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 25:47.
Game 2prediction correct41:25
Южно-Африканская Республика 28%Казахстан 72%
The model gave 72% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 32:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 72%
Series resultКазахстан 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2