ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WSWawitas Sagazesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 28 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 22 games
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
dyrachyo · 22 games
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 21 game
Techiessignature
tOfu · 21 game
Wawitas Sagazes
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Necrophosoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Luna
Lumière · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 398 bans
Dark Willow
229 picks · 110 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 453 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 306 bans
Kunkka
194 picks · 503 bans
Tusk
192 picks · 156 bans
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 399 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Gaimin Gladiators 77%Wawitas Sagazes 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 18:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaQuinn
Naga SirenLumière
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Primal BeastOscar
ChenSeleri
EnchantressPanda
Shadow DemontOfu
Game 2prediction correct43:16
Gaimin Gladiators 78%Wawitas Sagazes 22%
The model gave 78% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleAce
Phantom AssassinLumière
Slarkdyrachyo
LeshracDarkMago
Queen of PainQuinn
TidehunterOscar
Spirit BreakertOfu
Vengeful SpiritPanda
GyrocopterSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 92%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2