ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Techiessignature
Save- · 32 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 30 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 22 games
Enchantress
Save- · 21 game
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 21 game
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 20 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
Fbz · 12 games
Snapfire
Armel · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 394 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 110 bans
Muerta
223 picks · 317 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 453 bans
Phoenix
212 picks · 304 bans
Kunkka
193 picks · 499 bans
Tusk
191 picks · 155 bans
Nature's Prophet
189 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNightfall
LifestealerCrystallis
ZeusgpK~
HuskarMidOne
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Primal BeastBOOM
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow DemonPuppey
Dark WillowSave-
Lionyamich
Game 2prediction correct31:24
BETBOOM TEAM 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:01:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNightfall
Wraith KingCrystallis
LinagpK~
Lone DruidBOOM
WindrangerPure~
PuckMidOne
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Ogre MagiPuppey
TuskSave-
Snapfireyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2