Monte vs Team Tickles — prediction EPLS 15 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3

result vs prediction

Monteloss 0:2

series probability

9%91%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Tickleswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

No games played over 6 months.

Team Tickles

Enchantresssignature

Dukalis · 17 games

82%

Dark Seersignature

Force · 13 games

62%

Alchemistsignature

Ulnit · 11 games

64%

Clockwerksignature

NARMAN · 10 games

70%

Phantom Assassinsignature

Shad · 10 games

60%

Tidehunteroften banned

BOOM · 10 games

50%

Centaur Warrunnersignature

Force · 9 games

67%

Earthshakersignature

NARMAN · 9 games

78%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

269 picks · 393 bans

52%

Dark Willow

227 picks · 110 bans

54%

Muerta

223 picks · 317 bans

52%

Treant Protector

214 picks · 453 bans

58%

Phoenix

212 picks · 302 bans

45%

Kunkka

192 picks · 499 bans

61%

Tusk

191 picks · 155 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

189 picks · 396 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%

Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total91% Team Tickles

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct24:27

Monte 25%Team Tickles 75%

The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 43:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo