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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 13 games
62%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 10 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
StoneBank · 10 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 9 games
67%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 392 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 112 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
222 picks · 317 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 456 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 301 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
191 picks · 498 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
191 picks · 153 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 394 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
B8 Esports 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
52% · 112 games54% · 26 games
NecrophosMTD
Necrophos
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
46% · 103 games55% · 75 games
LifestealerFocus
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
46% · 104 games51% · 164 games
Primal BeastBb3px
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
48% · 178 games52% · 244 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
45% · 12 games
Game 2prediction correct38:8
B8 Esports 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeStoneBank
50% · 29 games49% · 41 game
MuertaFocus
Muerta
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
55% · 70 games43% · 52 games
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Zeus
ZeusDendi
51% · 45 games50% · 76 games
TinyMTD
Tiny
Chen
ChenMary_y
54% · 36 games48% · 55 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
50% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 64%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2