ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Undyingsignature
y` · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 14 games
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 390 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
220 picks · 316 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 457 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 298 bans
Kunkka
192 picks · 490 bans
Tusk
191 picks · 149 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:7
G2 Invictus Gaming 22%LGD Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:07.
Game 2prediction correct11:38
G2 Invictus Gaming 22%LGD Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2