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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 22 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
511 picks · 296 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 572 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 353 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
432 picks · 338 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 322 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
348 picks · 184 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 839 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 846 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:25
PlayTime 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
48% · 267 games54% · 131 game
Kezrincyq
Kez
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFrank
50% · 220 games50% · 284 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerWits
54% · 233 games44% · 313 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
49% · 157 games50% · 92 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesElmisho
52% · 80 games49% · 137 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed29:22
PlayTime 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
52% · 226 games45% · 146 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
50% · 162 games43% · 153 games
KunkkaDavai
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderFrank
62% · 205 games43% · 147 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskScofield
51% · 318 games44% · 59 games
TechiesGH
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorElmisho
60% · 77 games51% · 483 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultPlayTime 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2