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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 19 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
NothingToSay · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
y` · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 14 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
pLAnet · 13 games
46%

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
92%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 8 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 7 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 385 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 111 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
219 picks · 316 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 458 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 296 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
191 picks · 488 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
190 picks · 147 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 392 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 79%
Hero pool strength63% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
LGD Gaming 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEmo
50% · 57 games48% · 74 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
53% · 42 games50% · 114 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Enigma
Enigmaniu
50% · 82 games41% · 95 games
MarsATF
Mars
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
55% · 73 games48% · 46 games
WeaverCr1t-
Weaver
Tiny
TinyPyw
43% · 141 game66% · 66 games
IoSneyking
Io
Game 2prediction correct14:28
LGD Gaming 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerEmo
50% · 79 games51% · 65 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Spectre
Spectreshiro
52% · 64 games50% · 74 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
44% · 104 games50% · 66 games
MarsATF
Mars
Lion
LionPyw
40% · 66 games54% · 185 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
52% · 170 games57% · 93 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 56%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2