ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 24 games
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 23 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
dyrachyo · 22 games
Techiessignature
tOfu · 21 game
Team Secret
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Batridersignature
yamich · 13 games
Snapfire
Armel · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 11 games
Primal Beastsignature
Fbz · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 383 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
217 picks · 316 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 461 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 293 bans
Kunkka
188 picks · 486 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
187 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:45
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
LinaQuinn
InvokerMidOne
VisageAce
Primal BeastBOOM
IoSeleri
Grimstrokeyamich
TusktOfu
JakiroPuppey
Game 2prediction correct27:21
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirendyrachyo
WeaverCrystallis
Lone DruidAce
KunkkaBOOM
LinaQuinn
RubickMidOne
ClockwerktOfu
ChenPuppey
JakiroSeleri
Tuskyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2