ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WSWawitas Sagazesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Wawitas Sagazes
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Necrophosoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Earthshaker
DarkMago · 3 games
Enchantress
Panda · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
261 picks · 381 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
215 picks · 315 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 459 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 292 bans
Kunkka
188 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
183 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Wawitas Sagazes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Wawitas Sagazes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Blacklist International 49%Wawitas Sagazes 51%
The model gave 51% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 34:49.
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Blacklist International 49%Wawitas Sagazes 51%
The model gave 51% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 27:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteWawitas Sagazes · 51%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2