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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 8 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 7 games
71%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 13 games
62%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 12 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Puppey · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Fbz · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 381 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
228 picks · 111 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
215 picks · 315 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 459 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
209 picks · 292 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
188 picks · 482 bans
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 386 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
183 picks · 145 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:24
Azure Ray 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
50% · 56 games50% · 162 games
Dragon KnightMidOne
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckXm
57% · 76 games49% · 142 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Slardar
SlardarXxs
38% · 4 games45% · 76 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickXinQ
43% · 255 games57% · 73 games
VenomancerPuppey
Venomancer
Silencer
Silencer天命
44% · 124 games61% · 62 games
Vengeful Spirityamich
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct42:26
Azure Ray 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenlou
54% · 133 games48% · 41 game
Lone DruidMidOne
Lone Druid
Zeus
ZeusXm
56% · 28 games54% · 98 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
46% · 141 game61% · 61 game
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
45% · 133 games43% · 14 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
47% · 61 game47% · 282 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 58%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2