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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 17 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%

Team Falcons

Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 8 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 6 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
280 picks · 386 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
247 picks · 114 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
225 picks · 491 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
215 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 307 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 421 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 355 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
188 picks · 479 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 76%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
Team Tickles 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlnit
47% · 139 games60% · 106 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
50% · 72 games57% · 24 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLorenof
44% · 130 games50% · 72 games
RazorATF
Razor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
48% · 140 games54% · 95 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
45% · 83 games48% · 267 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct6:18
Team Tickles 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 22:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaLorenof
45% · 99 games52% · 204 games
DoomATF
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
57% · 120 games54% · 270 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
50% · 138 games46% · 83 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Phoenix
PhoenixNARMAN
47% · 160 games59% · 48 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
51% · 234 games43% · 146 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2