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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Sneyking · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 5 games
80%

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 13 games
85%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 9 games
78%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Spectre
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
279 picks · 384 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 114 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
223 picks · 491 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
215 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 307 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 419 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
188 picks · 354 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 479 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Team Falcons 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
42% · 117 games52% · 52 games
LunaKiritych
Luna
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
51% · 139 games54% · 104 games
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsATF
46% · 83 games51% · 125 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
53% · 125 games50% · 112 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 171 game51% · 242 games
Treant ProtectorFng
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed24:41
Team Falcons 60%Virtus.pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
43% · 43 games51% · 150 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
52% · 134 games56% · 159 games
DoomNoticed
Doom
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
52% · 171 game64% · 15 games
SlardarKiritych
Slardar
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
44% · 72 games45% · 134 games
PhoenixFng
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 231 game53% · 193 games
Treant Protectorsayuw
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Team Falcons 59%Virtus.pro 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
47% · 85 games56% · 143 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Slardar
SlardarATF
49% · 18 games43% · 28 games
Lone DruidKiritych
Lone Druid
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
52% · 297 games50% · 158 games
Spirit BreakerNoticed
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
49% · 139 games54% · 146 games
Grimstrokesayuw
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
44% · 188 games51% · 252 games
TuskFng
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3