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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 5 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 5 games
20%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
0%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 9 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
274 picks · 373 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
240 picks · 113 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 485 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
212 picks · 316 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 301 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 409 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
186 picks · 351 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
185 picks · 466 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
Yellow Submarine 36%Natus Vincere 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
51% · 192 games55% · 113 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Lina
Linaerase
56% · 100 games55% · 212 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
51% · 110 games46% · 88 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
44% · 258 games41% · 181 game
PhoenixMalady
Phoenix
Bane
Baneaik
48% · 29 games53% · 95 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed33:29
Yellow Submarine 33%Natus Vincere 67%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
52% · 253 games52% · 297 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
48% · 132 games51% · 354 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterpJonn
47% · 216 games50% · 78 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Phoenix
Phoenixrue
45% · 279 games52% · 311 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskaik
45% · 477 games57% · 317 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 77%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2