Esports Shanghai Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Eagle
Muertaoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Magnus
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Necrophosoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
274 picks · 371 bans
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 483 bans
Muerta
211 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 299 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 408 bans
Pangolier
186 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Eagle
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:12
Invictus Gaming 93%Eagle 7%
The model gave 93% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Eagle in 12:11.
Game 2prediction missed31:9
Invictus Gaming 93%Eagle 7%
The model gave 93% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Eagle in 28:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 93%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2