Esports Shanghai Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 15 games
Timbersawoften banned
Xxs · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Monet · 14 games
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
BEYOND · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
Cty · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
274 picks · 369 bans
Dark Willow
238 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 482 bans
Muerta
210 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
206 picks · 298 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 406 bans
Pangolier
186 picks · 350 bans
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:33
Team Aster 45%Team Zero 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:10:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerpoyoyo
SpectreCty
Magnus生死
Queen of Pain7e
KunkkaEcho
BrewmasterBEYOND
MuertaFantasy
Jakirozzq
PhoenixFrisk
Lioniceice
Game 2prediction missed37:25
Team Aster 49%Team Zero 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magepoyoyo
Phantom LancerCty
Wraith King生死
BrewmasterBEYOND
SlardarEcho
Magnus7e
Dark WillowFrisk
Lioniceice
JakiroFantasy
Clockwerkzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 55%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2