European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Two Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 40 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 36 games
Tiny
ani-san · 36 games
Tusk
ani-san · 35 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 22 games
Two Move
Bristlebackoften banned
WoE · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 2 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 2 games
Silencer
Htrd · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
WoE · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 1 game
Death Prophet
Ainkrad · 1 game
Doomoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 567 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
432 picks · 340 bans
Tusk
372 picks · 324 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 834 bans
Puck
345 picks · 844 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 182 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 80%
Hero pool strength53% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:38
Rune Eaters 48%Two Move 52%
The model gave 52% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSmiling Knight
Lone DruidWoE
ViperEthereal
Death ProphetAinkrad
UnderlordAnkou
SlardarBb3px
JakiroKidaro
Snapfirequeezy
Windrangerani-san
RingmasterHtrd
Game 2prediction correct18:45
Rune Eaters 49%Two Move 51%
The model gave 51% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangeryowaai
LifestealerWoE
Queen of PainEthereal
DawnbreakerBb3px
UnderlordAnkou
Sand KingAinkrad
Hoodwinkani-san
Rubickqueezy
JakiroKidaro
RingmasterHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 53%
Series resultTwo Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2