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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 12 games
83%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
70%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 9 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
so bad · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
271 picks · 368 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
237 picks · 113 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 481 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 316 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
205 picks · 297 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 403 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
186 picks · 350 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:14
Level UP 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 25:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistFocus
50% · 64 games51% · 27 games
Wraith Kingv1olent-
Wraith King
Lina
LinaStojkov
51% · 44 games46% · 79 games
KunkkaAinkrad
Kunkka
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDavai
54% · 35 games53% · 78 games
TimbersawBb3px
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinydEsire
49% · 119 games53% · 24 games
Lionso bad
Lion
47% · 54 games
Grimstrokeforcemajor
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Level UP 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerFocus
45% · 104 games46% · 137 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
51% · 124 games48% · 83 games
PuckAinkrad
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaStojkov
60% · 137 games49% · 114 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskdEsire
49% · 382 games45% · 162 games
Phoenixforcemajor
Phoenix
55% · 251 game
Treant Protectorso bad
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2