Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 5 games
Muertaoften banned
rue · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Lich
aik · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
SIBE Team
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 11 games
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 11 games
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
nesfeer · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
Pucksignature
erase · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 367 bans
Dark Willow
237 picks · 111 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 477 bans
Muerta
208 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 295 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 399 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 348 bans
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 68%
Hero pool strength66% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:17
Yellow Submarine 42%SIBE Team 58%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSatanic
Lunanesfeer
Queen of Painerase
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Brewmasterklassnokruto
Grimstrokerue
Phoenixemptiness
Tuskaik
Spirit BreakerRein
Game 2prediction missed29:8
Yellow Submarine 40%SIBE Team 60%
The model gave 60% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 19:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
Weavernesfeer
Pangoliererase
Dark Seerklassnokruto
TidehunterpJonn
Queen of Painряф^^
Pugnaaik
Tuskemptiness
Lionrue
GrimstrokeRein
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 65%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2