European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 30 games
Pangolier
Covisnine · 25 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 22 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Techies
ariel · 18 games
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
Tusk
ariel · 17 games
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwink
dEsire · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Ringmaster
dEsire · 29 games
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 24 games
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
Banesignature
MoOz · 22 games
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
Tusksignature
dEsire · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
462 picks · 280 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 457 bans
Mirana
300 picks · 122 bans
Dark Willow
297 picks · 128 bans
Clockwerk
288 picks · 264 bans
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 290 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 407 bans
Bane
273 picks · 395 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total84% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 16%Zero Tenacity 84%
The model gave 84% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 16%Zero Tenacity 84%
The model gave 84% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 16%Zero Tenacity 84%
The model gave 84% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 84%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3