Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs predictionDBDudley boyswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kleeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dudley boys
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 365 bans
Dark Willow
236 picks · 108 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 477 bans
Muerta
208 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 295 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 395 bans
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
Pangolier
184 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:43
Dudley boys 62%Team Klee 38%
The model gave 62% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 57:57.
Game 2prediction correct33:33
Dudley boys 62%Team Klee 38%
The model gave 62% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 41:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 62%
Series resultDudley boys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2