European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Two Moveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 28 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
Lionsignature
Wein · 11 games
Two Move
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 5 games
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Techies
Htrd · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
462 picks · 280 bans
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 456 bans
Mirana
302 picks · 123 bans
Dark Willow
300 picks · 130 bans
Clockwerk
282 picks · 251 bans
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 289 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 409 bans
Bane
271 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 45%Two Move 55%
The model gave 55% on Two Move — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 45%Two Move 55%
The model gave 55% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move.
Game 3prediction missed51:31
Yellow Submarine 49%Two Move 51%
The model gave 51% on Two Move — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 55:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
SpectreWoE
LinaRain
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Enigmamangekyou
AxeBb3px
LichXakoda
Skywrath Magequeezy
Dark Willowprblms
Winter WyvernHtrd
Game 6prediction missed24:4
Yellow Submarine 49%Two Move 51%
The model gave 51% on Two Move — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 22:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezShigetsu
TerrorbladeWoE
Lycanmangekyou
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Storm SpiritRain
Dragon KnightAinkrad
Dark Willowprblms
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
BaneXakoda
Witch DoctorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4