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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 25 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 22 games
36%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 22 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 18 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 17 games
53%

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 31 game
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 28 games
43%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
43%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 283 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 452 bans
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
304 picks · 131 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
303 picks · 124 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 288 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
277 picks · 241 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 412 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
269 picks · 388 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total58% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Nemiga Gaming 42%Team Lynx 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbyun
47% · 122 games62% · 67 games
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Lycan
Lycantakizawa
48% · 61 game55% · 320 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
Pangolieryoung G
45% · 216 games53% · 62 games
Razormellojul
Razor
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
37% · 195 games52% · 222 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
Techies
TechiesVaniLLl
44% · 122 games61% · 45 games
Witch Doctorkreker
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct39:33
Nemiga Gaming 46%Team Lynx 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:16:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezbyun
55% · 237 games48% · 28 games
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Phantom Lancer
Puck
Puckyoung G
47% · 494 games46% · 412 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
52% · 206 games51% · 260 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Ringmaster
RingmasterVaniLLl
49% · 291 game53% · 631 game
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
43% · 270 games54% · 167 games
Winter Wyvernkreker
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct35:61
Nemiga Gaming 45%Team Lynx 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:19:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
46% · 145 games53% · 120 games
Necrophosv1olent-
Necrophos
Timbersaw
Timbersawtakizawa
46% · 188 games41% · 535 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Kez
Kezbyun
56% · 212 games52% · 257 games
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
Doom
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
50% · 544 games54% · 195 games
MiranaQBFY
Mirana
Bane
BaneVaniLLl
49% · 197 games52% · 179 games
Winter Wyvernkreker
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 58%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3