European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balu Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwink
dEsire · 35 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 32 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 31 game
Banesignature
MoOz · 23 games
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 22 games
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
Tusksignature
dEsire · 21 game
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
461 picks · 282 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 455 bans
Dark Willow
302 picks · 130 bans
Mirana
302 picks · 123 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 288 bans
Clockwerk
278 picks · 247 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 409 bans
Bane
271 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Zero Tenacity 94%Balu Team 6%
The model gave 94% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:39.
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Zero Tenacity 94%Balu Team 6%
The model gave 94% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 94%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2