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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 14 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Infernal · 6 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
25%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 29 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 26 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 21 game
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 21 game
38%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 283 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
313 picks · 127 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 136 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 446 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 290 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 417 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 215 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Team Synapse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:44
Team Synapse 64%Nemiga Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezTA2000
53% · 326 games46% · 310 games
Tinybyun
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
53% · 484 games52% · 245 games
Dragon Knightyoung G
Dragon Knight
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
45% · 145 games51% · 129 games
Doomtakizawa
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
45% · 321 game51% · 456 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
56% · 136 games
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct40:44
Team Synapse 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 55:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
40% · 559 games52% · 186 games
Kezbyun
Kez
Doom
Doomemptiness
49% · 272 games57% · 47 games
Enigmatakizawa
Enigma
Techies
Techiesbengan
48% · 244 games58% · 311 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJeezy
48% · 75 games53% · 470 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
50% · 136 games
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct46:26
Team Synapse 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTA2000
54% · 70 games55% · 126 games
Doomtakizawa
Doom
Axe
Axeemptiness
50% · 186 games51% · 145 games
Kezbyun
Kez
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
46% · 171 game47% · 110 games
Earth Spirityoung G
Earth Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernbengan
52% · 152 games46% · 117 games
Techiesariel
Techies
51% · 81 game
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 71%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3