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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Two Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ankou · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 2 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%

Two Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 7 games
100%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Bb3px · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
queezy · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Htrd · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 289 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
338 picks · 140 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
333 picks · 152 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 440 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
272 picks · 247 bans
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:37
Kalmychata 36%Two Move 64%
The model gave 64% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAnkou
51% · 102 games50% · 42 games
IoWoE
Io
Luna
Lunayowaai
48% · 119 games49% · 277 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
51% · 128 games44% · 113 games
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
42% · 176 games62% · 84 games
Winter WyvernHtrd
Winter Wyvern
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
54% · 195 games50% · 204 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed31:14
Kalmychata 38%Two Move 62%
The model gave 62% on Two Move — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
55% · 265 games48% · 150 games
Nature's ProphetWoE
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
55% · 161 game45% · 194 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Largo
LargoAnkou
60% · 131 game43% · 15 games
Outworld DestroyerAinkrad
Outworld Destroyer
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
49% · 186 games44% · 195 games
EnchantressHtrd
Enchantress
Bane
Baneani-san
52% · 157 games46% · 346 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed30:29
Kalmychata 37%Two Move 63%
The model gave 63% on Two Move — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenyowaai
53% · 86 games53% · 101 game
Lone DruidWoE
Lone Druid
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
54% · 204 games52% · 138 games
LycanBb3px
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
50% · 370 games49% · 412 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
51% · 110 games44% · 369 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
50% · 591 game46% · 341 game
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 76%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3