European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 25 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 16 games
Banesignature
Kidaro · 15 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 14 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 28 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 16 games
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
472 picks · 290 bans
Mirana
331 picks · 136 bans
Dark Willow
328 picks · 144 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 456 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 431 bans
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 295 bans
Clockwerk
270 picks · 205 bans
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total85% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Inner Circle 29%Yellow Submarine 71%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerNorma
TinyRain
Windrangerrubikon155
Beastmastermangekyou
Ember Spiritdualrazee
SlarkShigetsu
Dark WillowFernans
Keeper of the Lightprblms
HoodwinkKidaro
MiranaXakoda
Game 2prediction correct12:38
Inner Circle 27%Yellow Submarine 73%
The model gave 73% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherrubikon155
KezShigetsu
Dark SeerNorma
Lycanmangekyou
Puckdualrazee
Keeper of the LightRain
MiranaKidaro
Hoodwinkprblms
Dark WillowFernans
LichXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 85%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2