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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
67%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
78%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 8 games
63%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
73%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Riddys · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
271 picks · 353 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 112 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 482 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 304 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 312 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 407 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
192 picks · 176 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 355 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
B8 Esports 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingLowskill
49% · 39 games53% · 44 games
Alchemistgotthejuice
Alchemist
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
53% · 7 games50% · 16 games
NecrophosNiku
Necrophos
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDendi
59% · 46 games48% · 45 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Chen
ChenMary_y
51% · 29 games44% · 32 games
WeaverDaze
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
50% · 71 game44% · 55 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct24:25
B8 Esports 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
little data46% · 70 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Lifestealer
LifestealerLowskill
50% · 100 games49% · 141 game
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusDendi
48% · 140 games40% · 60 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
57% · 167 games59% · 61 game
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
60% · 13 games47% · 88 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 55%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2