Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 10 games
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 4 games
Lich
aik · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Magnus
erase · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 350 bans
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 478 bans
Phoenix
206 picks · 305 bans
Muerta
203 picks · 308 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 407 bans
Vengeful Spirit
193 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength67% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Natus Vincere 70%Yellow Submarine 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreShigetsu
Faceless VoidSatanic
Zeusmellojul
Razorerase
DawnbreakerNefrit
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
EnchantressMalady
Nature's Prophetaik
TuskZayac
Dark Willowrue
Game 2prediction missed15:32
Natus Vincere 71%Yellow Submarine 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverShigetsu
Naga SirenSatanic
Spirit BreakerNefrit
Linaerase
Dazzlemellojul
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
BaneZayac
Muertarue
TuskMalady
Treant Protectoraik
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 83%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2