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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 11 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 9 games
78%
Spectre
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 9 games
78%

SIBE Team

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 11 games
91%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 9 games
89%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
nesfeer · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 349 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
238 picks · 113 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
219 picks · 477 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 302 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 307 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 407 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
194 picks · 182 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 358 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 72%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Virtus.pro 59%SIBE Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSquad1x
49% · 116 games53% · 68 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
46% · 84 games56% · 41 game
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
52% · 96 games51% · 91 game
Dawnbreakerklassnokruto
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
43% · 150 games53% · 270 games
Tuskemptiness
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
49% · 81 game51% · 57 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Virtus.pro 59%SIBE Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
44% · 170 games58% · 151 game
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
45% · 117 games54% · 85 games
Brewmasterklassnokruto
Brewmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
49% · 163 games50% · 360 games
Tuskряф^^
Tusk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFng
48% · 115 games58% · 305 games
Nature's Prophetemptiness
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
Tinysayuw
51% · 392 games40% · 56 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2