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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 21 game
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 13 games
77%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 13 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 10 games
60%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 287 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 566 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 351 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
433 picks · 341 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 326 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 837 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 842 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 182 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:40
REKONIX 31%Nigma Galaxy 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTraVins
40% · 103 games62% · 90 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
45% · 257 games49% · 301 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
50% · 147 games51% · 132 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdalul
52% · 127 games50% · 108 games
SilencerGH
Silencer
Enchantress
EnchantressVarizh
50% · 158 games50% · 161 game
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct20:34
REKONIX 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFbz
50% · 71 game58% · 112 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTraVins
49% · 65 games48% · 317 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KinginYourdreaM
50% · 150 games47% · 103 games
KunkkaDavai
Kunkka
Rubick
Rubickdalul
54% · 150 games38% · 35 games
IoGH
Io
Jakiro
JakiroVarizh
46% · 267 games54% · 136 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2