Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
Luna
Skiter · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
Spectreoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Cr1t- · 4 games
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Lich
aik · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
erase · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 349 bans
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
219 picks · 476 bans
Phoenix
208 picks · 303 bans
Muerta
203 picks · 303 bans
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 410 bans
Vengeful Spirit
194 picks · 193 bans
Pangolier
193 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 38%
Hero pool strength71% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
Team Falcons 79%Yellow Submarine 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
TerrorbladeSatanic
MarsATF
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Invokerbzm
Magnuserase
ChenSneyking
Dark Willowrue
LionCr1t-
Treant Protectoraik
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Team Falcons 79%Yellow Submarine 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
Templar AssassinSatanic
MarsATF
Pangoliererase
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Dark SeerpJonn
WeaverCr1t-
Lionrue
TuskSneyking
Treant Protectoraik
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2