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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 12 games
83%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 10 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 349 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
219 picks · 476 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 303 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 303 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 410 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
194 picks · 193 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
193 picks · 359 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
Alliance 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 45:15.
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Alliance 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:44.
Game 3prediction missed15:29
Alliance 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 36:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 57%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3