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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 4 games
25%

SIBE Team

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 10 games
90%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 9 games
89%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 343 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 114 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 476 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 302 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
201 picks · 300 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
199 picks · 207 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 362 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 419 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 75%
Hero pool strength64% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:19
BOOM Esports 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
54% · 62 games38% · 66 games
Dragon Knightряф^^
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSacred
57% · 157 games37% · 45 games
Muertanesfeer
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
64% · 184 games40% · 89 games
Tidehunterklassnokruto
Tidehunter
51% · 122 games
Batrideremptiness
Batrider
40% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerRein
Centaur Warrunner
Game 2prediction correct26:48
BOOM Esports 46%SIBE Team 54%
The model gave 54% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPakazs
47% · 79 games50% · 61 game
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSacred
54% · 157 games51% · 10 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMjz
41% · 9 games48% · 40 games
Grimstrokeemptiness
Grimstroke
50% · 47 games
Centaur Warrunnerklassnokruto
Centaur Warrunner
53% · 87 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct19:38
BOOM Esports 43%SIBE Team 57%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePakazs
50% · 109 games57% · 33 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Axe
AxeSacred
52% · 64 games55% · 32 games
Spirit Breakerklassnokruto
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
WeaverMjz
41% · 75 games52% · 49 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
44% · 69 games
Rubickemptiness
Rubick
56% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 58%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3