European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
Night Pulse
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
263 picks · 343 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 114 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 476 bans
Phoenix
212 picks · 302 bans
Muerta
201 picks · 300 bans
Vengeful Spirit
199 picks · 207 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 362 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:28
KZ TEAM 74%Night Pulse 26%
The model gave 74% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 38:55.
Game 2prediction correct22:13
KZ TEAM 74%Night Pulse 26%
The model gave 74% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 20:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 74%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2