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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 9 games
78%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 337 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 116 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 477 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 298 bans
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
204 picks · 209 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 297 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 418 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
197 picks · 365 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Virtus.pro 72%MarsBet Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
47% · 132 games48% · 120 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Spectre
SpectreKiritych
53% · 56 games50% · 176 games
Primal BeastMr. Luck
Primal Beast
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
55% · 94 games37% · 47 games
JakiroMitch
Jakiro
Tiny
Tinysayuw
52% · 260 games57% · 251 game
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Treant Protector
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFng
45% · 52 games
Game 2prediction correct32:19
Virtus.pro 72%MarsBet Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
47% · 39 games49% · 34 games
Chaos KnightOtaker
Chaos Knight
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
59% · 14 games46% · 62 games
BrewmasterMr. Luck
Brewmaster
Dazzle
DazzleSquad1x
50% · 14 games58% · 45 games
GyrocopterMitch
Gyrocopter
Chen
ChenFng
60% · 6 games63% · 4 games
Shadow ShamanLeBronDota
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
Tinysayuw
47% · 72 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2