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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 8 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 6 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Adzantick · 6 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
NARMAN · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 11 games
82%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 333 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 117 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 476 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 297 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 215 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 368 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
197 picks · 293 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 429 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Team Tickles 70%Natus Vincere Junior 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerUlnit
47% · 170 games50% · 97 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaLorenof
50% · 107 games52% · 267 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
62% · 239 games43% · 147 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
44% · 143 games52% · 104 games
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
54% · 68 games46% · 112 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct23:8
Team Tickles 71%Natus Vincere Junior 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenUlnit
47% · 104 games41% · 206 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Lina
LinaLorenof
52% · 111 games52% · 101 game
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaForce
60% · 83 games41% · 100 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
55% · 172 games46% · 94 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
64% · 108 games43% · 77 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 83%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2