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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Mars
Mars
Ws · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
25%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 6 games
17%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LeBronDota · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 336 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
241 picks · 116 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 475 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 297 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
210 picks · 216 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 371 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
196 picks · 289 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 432 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:37
BOOM Esports 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:06:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
49% · 120 games50% · 34 games
Wraith KingOtaker
Wraith King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSacred
54% · 143 games49% · 158 games
DoomMr. Luck
Doom
Oracle
OracleMjz
55% · 56 games41% · 67 games
PugnaMitch
Pugna
52% · 60 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed15:49
BOOM Esports 59%MarsBet Team 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPakazs
48% · 73 games55% · 97 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Snapfire
SnapfireSacred
33% · 84 games52% · 44 games
BrewmasterMr. Luck
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMjz
54% · 115 games51% · 99 games
PugnaMitch
Pugna
62% · 32 games
GyrocopterLeBronDota
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed32:57
BOOM Esports 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPakazs
47% · 48 games51% · 33 games
Wraith KingMr. Luck
Wraith King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
49% · 52 games50% · 28 games
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Pugna
PugnaMjz
62% · 48 games53% · 24 games
GyrocopterMitch
Gyrocopter
40% · 63 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3