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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%

Team Hryvnia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 330 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
245 picks · 114 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 219 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 479 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 377 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 429 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
187 picks · 283 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
B8 Esports 76%Team Hryvnia 24%
The model gave 76% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:46.
Game 2prediction missed27:37
B8 Esports 76%Team Hryvnia 24%
The model gave 76% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 53:29.
Game 3prediction correct19:3
B8 Esports 76%Team Hryvnia 24%
The model gave 76% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 17:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 76%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3