Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Starswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 12 games
Tusk
Kingrd · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 7 games
Clockwerk
KJ · 7 games
Dark Willow
Kingrd · 7 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 328 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 114 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 222 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 384 bans
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 435 bans
Muerta
185 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Alliance 66%Keyd Stars 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 36:04.
Game 2prediction missed18:26
Alliance 66%Keyd Stars 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 48:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 66%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2